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Just wondering what everyone thinks of long range weather forecasts say out to a month. And also what websites are you getting your forecasts from? Do the month long forecast give a reasonable but not perfect idea of what it might be like or do they change heaps? Cheers
I think they work on averages over a period of time.
So would be indicative of what you may get.
But wouldn't place too much reliance on them.
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I wouldn’t trust a month old weather forecast. I’ve seen big changes in just a week.
Geez I've never looked a month out, it can change over a week, if I'm headed out on the briney in the weekend I watch metvuw 7 to 10 day forecasts but make the call about Thursday and generally back it up with met service recreational forecast. Windfinder is a good one I've found for local rain forecast, pretty accurate. Be interested to hear what others think about the month idea tho...
Like what these^^blokes said, wouldn’t trust a forecast a week out, I watch Windy, YR & Metvuw, a week out these sites can show huge variations in forecasts
7-10 days is a long way out...I wouldn't trust anything a month out..
Just had a look a metvuw I’ve never seen that one before. :thumbsup:
I have used windguru for the last 16 years. Also it does not cover the whole of nz, it s usually fair lie good, if you can read how it is presented.
Metvuw - my go to.
Windy.com
CWU (Canterbury)
You can confirm a weekend map for the South Island on a Wed or Thursday night and get what you see. Month....LOL!
metvuw is my go to and has been for years.
Just be aware that the wind is background average so expect gusts significantly higher and the light showers colours tend to give the impression of more rain that what happens.
when looking out past 5 day's my experience is that you can only look at the general trend as it can easily be out by 48 hours and significant weather events can slide away and miss you completely or ones you expected to miss end up hitting you.
Z
Metservice meteorologist only forecast 1-5 days. Forecasts greater than 5 days are produced by computer modelling, so very much a guess at best.
Learning to read a synoptic chart will give you a lead in of of about a week for weather trends depending on the system.
Most generic world wide weather providers generally only use the local domestic government data anyway.
Metvuw is good I also use yr.no. As others have said longer range is indicative. Was watching long range closely before Fiordland and the 10 days tended to be exaggerated with 3 days pretty much on point.
I use YR and Weather Watch, the latter seems to be more accurate lately, I only look 5-6 days in advance as even then it can and often does change in that timeframe.
Few commercial fishermen I knew relied on forecasts out of South Australia for the week ahead before NZ forecasts.
I use YR for all around the world very good not often is it off.
Even for Stewart Island when I went 3 years ago it was spot on. For month out forecasting I’d look at historic data and cross that with what the longest forecast says to get an overall pic.
It won’t help with the unexpected or micro climates.