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Agree in part, there'll be a heap of different forces at work, in short the bags wetting out (from a form/s of condensation) and as Stocky mentions that moisture is wetting through the down as well. ...

It’s just simple condensation. Obviously your bag is warming right through to outer shell and cool moist air, in the tent is condensing on outer shell. Slap a lightweight waterproof tarp on top of...