Greetings @Gamehunter,
I have has some CAC and handloads that were probably both loaded with AR2201 in which the powder had clumped where there was no sign of problems on the outside of the case. Some of the primers were dead as well. I think the fact that the cap on the IMR 4895 container was rusted but the powder looked fine makes me reasonably sure that moisture was the problem. When you sealed the container as you say on a sunny day say 25 degrees C the relative humidity was likely around 35% at best. By winter with the temperature at 5 degrees C the same amount of moisture will drive the relative humidity over 100% and everything will be wringing wet. I really believe that this was the lions share of the problem.
Regards Grandpamac.
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