Gillie, thanks for the interest. The barrel is floating other than bedded for the first inch of the reinforce, M98 action, synthetic stock, T3 brake. I try to rest the barrel between shots so I wouldn't have thought temperature had a part to play. All the shots I'd have picked as being good - within the bounds of my generally mediocre skill level anyway.
I didn't think the 2moa horizontal seemed too much for a No.2 contour but the vertical movement was unexpected. Based on the measured change in velocity (over the 5 grain variation in powder) less than 1" should be due to change in drop, the other 4moa appears to genuinely be due to barrel vibration. Perhaps then the POI could have just as easily tracked down or across. This was the reason I started the thread. I thought there would be lots of ladder data out there amongst forum member' records that they could maybe dig out & share. Next time I'm out at the range I hope to confirm by repeating the same ladder test.
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