Newton said for every action there would be an equal and opposite reaction. He did not specify what the reaction would be. In the case of gun powder turning into gas, stuff will move. The projectile will move, the barrel will get hot (atoms moving), the projectile will get hot, the gas will move and the rifle will move.
So in this case, the rifle will go backwards (recoil) but it is a reaction to several things. So you can't back calculate from the projectile energy because it is not the only variable.
It is a very good question this 150g vs 130g for equal powder. You say you are shifting a heavier payload, but the payload is moving slower. So recoil should be equal.
What about case pressure and its effect on powder burn? The 2209 will be burning at higher pressure. Does a powders burn rate change as the chamber pressure during the burn varies?
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