@Moa_Hunter I know bugger all about tahr but a bit about sheep, goats and cattle etc, and I have a couple of queries about your numbers (genuine questions, I'm not suggesting your numbers are wrong)
150% kidding - is this realistic? Taking into account this needs to be survival to adulthood. If so, no wonder numbers have increased!
A 8% replacement rate for nannies would mean you are expecting them to live (and successfully breed) to 12-13 years. Do they? This one doesn't really affect the overall picture, even if replacement rate was 20% you still remove as many old nannies as you leave young ones so no net change in numbers.
Cheers!
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