In my view, there are basically three different categories (yes this is a gross generalisation, but it might help):
1) Post 64 (non comemorative) - the quality control in these is variable and some are very 'rattly/sloppy' in the action. Some, such as the later XTR models with angle eject are pretty nice, others are very basic. These are good working guns with, in my view, more limited collector value. For rougher specimens still in reasonable condition I would expect to pay $500 - $650. A very good specimen might fetch $850-$950 (around the price of a new Marlin), but I personally would be reluctant to pay much more than that ;
2) Pre 64 - this, for the purists, is the [only] real collectors one. I expect special order (delux takedowns, octagonal barrels etc) or to a lesser extent odd-ball calibres (38-55, 32-40 and possibly 25-35 etc) would command very big money (many thousands for a special order version), especially in the US - but these guns are very very rare in New Zealand (relatively speaking). A good pre-64 without any special attributes, but in original un-altered condition is probably worth $750 to $1000 depending on condition. A rough one is only worth what a working post 64 gun is worth - or maybe a smidgen more - as per the above ($500-$650). It would have to be a truely exceptional gun to command anything of significance over that. Nevertheless, an early serial number gun (perhaps pre 1927, which is when #1,000,000 was made), will command more - and a gun from the first two or three years of production is will command much more again.
3) Post 64 commemorative series. I personally don't think these are worth what people are paying for them. If you like tacky brass and nickel coated receivers (in a sloppy post 64 action) ... and cardboard boxes ... by all means go a head. Many purists will stop their collections at 1964, and won't bother with anything after that.
I paid $995 for a pre-64 30/30 a few years ago in what appears to be near unfired condition (which I still think is a whole lot of money for a 30/30, but I am happy)...
Remember quality is everything re collecting - if something has been butchered, altered, drilled and tapped, or refinished for many it will have no collector value.
And given there are around 7 million lingering in gun cabinets out there, I can't see the value increasing much anytime soon (think of what a Tikka T3 might be worth in 50 years time, lol).
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